Business, Karma and Heat: The NBA Returns
Woooooohoooooo!!!!
All right! NBA unlocked!
From all accounts, the players took a beating in the agreement. In the end, the players just wanted to play and the true threat of an antitrust lawsuit put the owners in a mood to compromise (a little). From a money standpoint, the real losers are not the bulk of the players, even though they stand to take a projected $3 billion hit from their previous revenue share position.
The biggest superstars are the biggest losers financially. Bill Simmons once wrote that a Lakers source estimated Kobe is worth something like $50 or $60 million to the Lakers. Under the labor agreement, Kobe can’t make more than the $25 million he does right now, and most superstars will never come close. If the players were to be paid market value, Dwight Howard, LeBron, Wade, Kobe, etc. would make $50 million, some players would make between $10-20 million, and most would be paid $1-3 million as essentially replaceable parts.
People talk about the greed of the players, but maybe they aren’t greedy enough. Why shouldn’t the people generating all the ticket sales earn the profits, rather than the team owners extorting stadiums and one-sided labor agreements?
But enough about business, let’s crack open the sports book!
My assessment of every team’s chances to win the title is based on two things: their talent level compared to the Heat and their karma. I compare teams to the Heat because the Heat are clearly the most talented team in the league, and as a Heat fan figure what kind of challenge the other team poses. You can call it bias, or say it’s crazy to brand the Heat the most talented team when they just lost to the Mavericks. Fair enough. But that argument ignores karma. Karma is why the Mavericks beat the Heat last year, why the Steelers were guaranteed to lose to the Packers in last year’s Super Bowl, and why Tim Tebow can win without completing three passes. Last year, LeBron and Wade had bad karma, from LeBron not giving Cleveland fans enough props to Wade prematurely celebrating in front of the Mavs bench during Game 2. From a talent standpoint, the Heat are clearly better than the Mavs. Only their karma kept them from making shots from two feet away in Game 6, or from closing out Game 2 and sweeping the Mavericks. Watch the end of the Game 2 – after the premature celebration, everything went wrong for the Heat. Even the easiest decision – guarding Dirk with Joel Anthony – was out the window once the Heat erupted as if the fat lady had already sung. Karma, desire, and talent will crown the 2012 NBA Champion. Without further ado:
The actual contenders in the West (before any Chris Paul or Dwight Howard mega-trade):
The Mavericks. Last year’s special title run ended years of hard-luck feelings for Dirk, Mark Cuban, and Dallas, and also crowned the careers of Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, and Shawn Marion. That said, they are not the favorites in the West simply because they do not have the best players. The Detroit Pistons won a title once too with a total team-effort, and they too beat a more talented team that had terrible karma. But like the Pistons, last year’s title set the Mavericks karma count back to zero. They are spent, and I do not expect to see them in the Finals.
The Blazers. They gave the Mavericks a good fight in the playoffs, and I like the move for Ray Felton, but ultimately LaMarcus Aldridge does not have enough help to win it all. If and when Greg Oden morphs into Hakeem Olajuwon then we can talk title. If Brandon Roy were 100% healthy, I would expect them to make the West Finals. Instead, I wonder how much Phoenix’s doctors would be worth to Portland in free agency.
The Spurs. They have nothing left in the tank, but they have pieces to trade for a new engine. Tony Parker and DeJuan Blair for Steve Nash or Chris Paul would make the Spurs brand new. I don’t expect either of those deals, but with their cards the Spurs are still in the game. Like Ace-King, Duncan and Ginobili is a great starting hand, but they need help to win.
The Thunder. I don’t like the Thunder. Forget the fact that their name is a converted version of the Sonics, who the “Thunder” actually are. I don’t like them. I don’t like Westbrook, he reminds me of a souped-up Stephon Marbury or an almost-Allen Iverson. I don’t like Durant, and the childish way he called Chris Bosh a “fake tough-guy.” When did Chris Bosh ever claim to be a tough guy? When he did those silly cowboy commercials asking for All-Star votes? I also don’t like the way Durant is praised as the good guy Greg of basketball. When Durant signed his contract extension, people like Michael Wilbon fawned over him like he was Mother Teresa. So Durant re-signed with the team that drafted him, so what? If the best player his team matched him with in six years was J.J. Hickson, Durant would have left as a free agent too. Most of that had nothing to do with basketball (and Durant’s image in the media is out of his control) but I don’t like them as a basketball team either. Their big men have no offense and their scorers have no defense. I don’t like them, and I would be surprised if they beat the Lakers.
The Lakers. The Lakers lost last year because they needed a break after three straight deep playoff runs. They could have gone balls to the wall to face the Heat, but they would have been spanked the same way the Heat spanked them in the regular season, and they knew it. LeBron and Wade would have been juiced up to dethrone Kobe, and they would have had the karma to do it. Now, the Lakers are rested. Kobe, Gasol, and Odom and are a big three to rival Miami’s Three Amigos and I expect to see them in the Finals.
The Grizzlies. Everyone’s favorite underdogs last year are my co-favorite with the Lakers to make the Finals if they play their cards right. While the Lakers have the risk of being over-the-hill, the Grizzlies have the risk of being a one-hit wonder. The questions: Now that Zach Randolph has another big contract, will he still be hungry to beast everyone down low? Will they be able to re-sign Marc Gasol with the new luxury tax and salary cap in place? If the answers to those two questions are yes, the Grizzlies might be the best team in the West. Gasol, Randolph, the return of Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo, and Mike Conley are a strong starting five, and the Grizzlies have a deep bench too – Tony Allen, Sam Young, Darrell Arthur, and Greivis Vasquez all played meaningful minutes last year. How sweet would it be to see the Grizzlies take down the Lakers after everyone, myself include, raked them over the coals for “giving away” Pau in what we thought was the most one-sided trade ever? (I realize that might have been blind-luck considering they drafted Hasheem Thabeet, but still.) And how great is Z-Bo’s comeback after getting passed around by the bottom-feeders of the league? I’m rooting for the Memphis Grizzlies. A true story of redemption, especially if Shane Battier returns.
The actual contenders in the East (before any Chris Paul or Dwight Howard mega-trade):
The Knicks. The Knicks are on this list because Chris Paul probably wants to play for the Knicks. I score the potential match-up with Miami: Wade over Paul, LeBron over Carmelo, and Bosh tied with Amare, but that remains to be seen. A Knicks Big 3 would be a top contender. The only question – who do they have left to trade? Billups and Landry Fields for Chris Paul doesn’t cut the mustard.
The Magic. The Magic are on this list in case Chris Paul decides he wants to win. CP3 and Superman would be a devastating combo. But like the Knicks, the Magic have little to trade. The two best players besides Dwight are Jason Richardson and Ryan Anderson, not exactly building blocks for the Hornets. The Magic make the most sense for Chris Paul, but who can the Magic trade with Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick to make this viable for the Hornets?
The Celtics. Stick a fork in the Celtics. They are done. They might be the second best basketball team in the world, but the Miami Heat has their number. After Joel Anthony makes Kevin Garnett disappear and LeBron and Wade take advantage of being 30 years younger than Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, the only X-factor is Rajon Rondo. Until Rondo can hit jump shots, this is no longer an advantage. In the playoffs, Mike Bibby and Mario Chalmers guarded Rondo the way anyone should guard a man with no jumper – give him lots of space and dare him to shoot. When the key to your offense can be stymied by Mike Bibby, you need a new strategy. Unfortunately for Boston, the Celtics roster is maxed out and their center is no longer Kendrick Perkins, it’s Jermaine O’Neal. Perkins’ gritty offensive rebounding and defensive space-eating combined with the rest of the Celtics made them the biggest threat to the Heat. Now, they are an older, outclassed model. At least until Rondo can hit a jump shot.
The Bulls. Everyone who saw LeBron “easily guard” Derrick Rose knows the Bulls need help. Who can Rose pass to when the Bulls need a basket? Lucky for Chicago, the Bulls have the pieces to make a trade. Taj Gibson and Omer Asik for Monta Ellis would turn the Bulls into a threat. Rose, Ellis, Deng, Boozer and Noah would be a five that can play defense and grind out points. Without a second scorer, the Bulls are a punchless heavyweight waiting to get knocked out. With a second scorer, the Bulls might be the biggest threat in the league to the Miami Heat.
The Heat. If I was starting a basketball team, the first player in the world I would pick would be either LeBron James or Dwyane Wade. No one else in the league plays offense and defense at the level of LeBron and Wade. Dwight Howard needs to keep practicing Hakeem’s moves on offense, and Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Durant will never play Alonzo Mourning caliber defense. LeBron and Wade are top 5 at both, and they are on the same team. Add Chris Bosh, who can guard Pau Gasol or Andrew Bynum while dropping 30 on them, and you have the best team in the league. The supporting cast will also be better, with a healthy Haslem and Mike Miller, rookie point guard Norris Cole, and whatever the Heat adds in free agency. Grant Hill or Shane Battier could be Mike Miller insurance, and Sam Dalembert, Eddy Curry, and second-year Heat big man Dexter Pittman are likely backup center candidates. But the biggest improvement for the Heat will not be at point guard or center. It will be in karma. After losing in epic fashion to the Mavs, the Miami Heat are free to win.
My pick for the NBA Finals: Heat over Lakers in Six.
The Heat’s Big Three is better at every position than the Lakers. Wade > Kobe, LeBron > Odom, and when they play against each other, Bosh > Gasol. Only Bynum is left as the Lakers X-factor, and he was last seen cheap-shotting J.J. Barea. Not so good for the Karma. The Lakers have won two out of the last three NBA titles, so Los Angeles has no title drought to deserve a win. None of the other teams are as talented as these two, except maybe the Grizzlies, whose apparent good karma makes them a great dark horse pick. None of the likely blockbuster trades would make anyone as good as Miami, so your heavy favorite for the 2012 NBA Championship is everyone’s favorite team to hate: the Miami Heat.
httpv://youtube.com/watch?v=bEMJ6ymHEWs
Why your favorite team didn’t make the cut:
The Hawks. Because Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, and Al Horford are a JV-version of Wade, James, and Bosh. I love Al Horford, but the Hawks’ ceiling is beating the Bulls and that’s it.
The Jazz. Come back in five years.
The Nuggets. Cap space doesn’t score points.
The Pacers. Danny Granger would be the fourth best player on the Heat.
The T-Wolves. They could be the most entertaining no-defense team since the Suns, but defense wins championships.