Maximizing the Miami Dolphins’ 2012 Draft Options
How do you get to the Super Bowl? Drafting, drafting, drafting. Exploiting the NFL Draft is the reason why teams like the Green Bay Packers, New York Giants, and Pittsburgh Steelers make the playoffs and win Super Bowls. The best teams find multiple impact starters in the draft, building their team with low-cost talent. The Miami Dolphins have not shown a good understanding of draft value for years, which is why they were “winning” the Suck for Luck sweepstakes early last season.
The last time the Dolphins had a heralded “draft-guru” was Jimmy Johnson, who retired over 10 years ago, and a quick look at his record shows that even he was not a spectacular talent evaluator in Miami. Everyone points to his 3rd round steal of Jason Taylor and sixth-round find of Zach Thomas, but those picks only made up for the fact that Jimmy completely blew the first-round pick over half the time. First-round picks need to be starters, because you are paying them the most and that pick has the most value – other teams will trade you multiple lower-round picks for them, and you can still take just about anybody you want. Certainly, Jimmy had second-round success with Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain, but his first-round picks besides defensive stalwart Daryl Gardener were Yatil Green and John Avery, who were quickly out of the NFL. Another year he traded back to land the forgettable J.J. Johnson. To truly succeed in the draft, you need to find multiple starters every year, and the easiest way to do that is by getting it right with your first pick in the draft.
The coaches and GMs after Jimmy were much, much worse. Forget that we were drafting busts like Jamar Fletcher in the first round. Most years the Dolphins were in a hole before they even started drafting because they had traded a high draft pick for scraps. A future-second rounder to pick Morlon Greenwood in the third round. A second-rounder for A.J. Feeley. A third-rounder for Lamar Gordon. Nick Saban had the best Dolphins draft since Jimmy simply by picking actual NFL players in the first, second, and third round (Ronnie Brown, Matt Roth, and Channing Crowder). The following drafts were littered with Ted Ginn, Pat White, and a questionable understanding of draft value.
Last year, the Dolphins traded three picks to land running back Daniel Thomas in the second round. To acquire the 62nd pick in the draft, the Dolphins gave up picks #79, 146, and 217. While I like Daniel Thomas and thought he would be a good player when the Fins picked him, this was not the greatest value for our picks. Had the Dolphins stayed put in those spots, they could have landed Roy Helu, a running back who put up better numbers than Thomas last year, Ahmad Black, who would be contending for one of the Dolphins’ voids at the safety position, and Maurice Hurt, who started at guard last year for Tampa. None of these players are picks I’m making in hindsight. I would have made them at the time, armed with basic knowledge of college football. Roy Helu was a stud at Nebraska and an easy-to-see candidate for “good player the NFL is drafting too late for no reason.” Black and Hurt were NFL-quality players that most Gators fans could tell you were worth a pick. While there is no way to know that these specific players would have been available, every year there are quality players drafted as low as the seventh-round, and most of the time the players aren’t as hard to spot as Marques Colston.
This year, the Dolphins’ have the eighth pick and the rest of their own picks in the draft, plus the Bears’ third rounder. Jeff Ireland’s last two drafts were actually much better than most of the previous decade of Dolphin drafting, but to win over the raging fan base he needs to find quality in the first and second round, and spot a couple of gems in the later rounds. Here are his best options.
After dumping Brandon Marshall, the Dolphins biggest need is not at quarterback, but receiver. Jeff Ireland should use the Bears’ third round picks from that trade to move up and take Justin Blackmon. Blackmon is the only guarantee at WR in the entire draft, and he is also the rare receiver without an attitude. Nabbing Blackmon would give the Dolphins a legit receiving threat, and immediately win over the fan base. If the Dolphins go in any other direction with the first round pick, they need to use their second round pick and a third or fourth to move up for Baylor star Kendall Wright or Stephen Hill, or stand pat in the second and get Alshon Jeffery or Reuben Randle. These are the best values at receiver in the draft, and the Dolphins need to add a WR or risk more protests this offseason.
And now we come to the point of the article where I bash Ryan Tannehill. Not Ryan Tannehill, the person, or even Ryan Tannehill, the player, but the idea of Ryan Tannehill, top 10 NFL pick. This is precisely the dumb, desperate move that the Dolphins need to avoid. They have avoided this trap once before, when the Mel Kipers and Todd McShays of the world insisted Miami had to draft Brady Quinn. The fact that Brady Quinn did not become a good or great NFL quarterback isn’t even the reason this is a perfect example of why the Dolphins should not draft Tannehill at 8. Brady Quinn was not drafted until the 22nd pick of the draft. Even if the Dolphins think Tannehill is an excellent prospect, no one else needs a quarterback besides the Browns, and if they wanted Tannehill so bad they could draft him at 4. The Dolphins could trade back to 20, pick up a third or fourth rounder, and still get Tannehill.
The Dolphins should probably draft a QB to provide options at the game’s most important position, as Matt Moore and David Garrard are potentially good but probably not great players. And here is where we bash Tannehill the player. Ryan Tannehill was not a winning quarterback in his conference last year. Can you think of a single good NFL quarterback who was not a winner in his conference? I can not. Best case scenario, Tannehill turns into a good QB…in three years. Why spend a first rounder on that? There are good quarterbacks in the draft every year, often outside the first round, including this one! If the Dolphins are going to spend a high pick on a QB, it should be on Brandon Weeden in the second round. The guy is fully developed and just beat Andrew Luck in the Fiesta Bowl. Pair him with his college teammate Justin Blackmon, and Dolphins fans become confident the offense is going in the right direction, regardless of which QB actually wins the training camp battle.
While Blackmon is by far the best first-round option for the Dolphins, they do have other holes to fill. Miami could opt to fix the glaring gap on the right side of their offensive line. David DeCastro and Riley Reiff would not be popular picks, but they would be productive starters for years. If they did nab Blackmon, they could use the second rounder on O-lineman Cordy Glenn or Mike Adams. What the Dolphins absolutely should not do is draft Melvin Ingram, Quinton Coples, or Fletcher Cox. All of these players have bust potential, and at best fill a secondary need for the Dolphins. Miami’s defensive line is one of the team’s strongest units. After receiver, O-Line, and QB, the Dolphins still have a bigger need in the secondary than the D-line.
Besides Blackmon, DeCastro and Reiff, the only player I would condone the Dolphins taking in the first round is Janoris Jenkins. Jenkins is an absolute stud who shut down the likes of A.J. Green and Julio Jones in college. In today’s NFL, and with Tom Brady in the division, the Dolphins absolutely need three cornerbacks. Even if the Dolphins could get Morris Claiborne, I would rather have Jenkins. Between the other first-round DBs, I like Mark Barron more than Dre Kirkpatrick, but neither has the ability of Jenkins, who would be regarded as a top 10 pick if not for off-the-field issues. If the Dolphins do trade down for Jenkins, or take anyone but Blackmon in the first round, they need to draft one of the previously named receivers or Coby Fleener, the top tight end on the board, in the second round.
Because Jeff Ireland is certainly reading this column and plans to follow my advice, the Dolphins will nail their top two picks, and are halfway to a great draft. Here are my picks for late-round gems the rest of the way:
3rd round
Orson Charles – TE – Big Georgia TE with good hands can give Miami a threat down the middle.
4th round
T.Y. Hilton – WR – Hilton is a burner that is a late-round lock for slot-receiver success.
LaMichael James – RB – With Reggie Bush likely on his way out next year, James could be his replacement.
Tommy Streeter – WR – UM players have shown more in the NFL than college recently, and Streeter has serious speed.
5th round
Chris Rainey – RB – Another possible Reggie Bush replacement, Rainey is an underrated receiver.
6th round
Kellen Moore – QB – He’s short, but he’s also an accurate passer with great decision making.
Russell Wilson – QB – If he was two inches taller, he might go in the first round. Because the draft is all about getting the most talent available for your pick, I would not take him higher than the sixth even if I thought he was a lock to be great, because he will still be available. This is how you maximize the draft.
Honorable mention to players I’ve seen well-hyped in the media but know almost nothing about:
Trumaine Johnson – CB, Marvin McNutt – WR, Mohammed Sanu – WR, Chris Givens – WR.